Software Engineer and founder of various AI start ups Vincent Van Code (@vincent_vancode) argues on X that most XRP burn projections are understated because they assume today’s low transaction fees persist even under heavy network usage. In his framing, sustained congestion on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) could push fees higher via the protocol’s load-scaling mechanics, potentially destroying on the order of one billion XRP annually.
XRPL Load Factor Could Turn Fees Into A Major XRP Burn
In a thread titled “The ‘Supply Meltdown’ Simulation,” Vincent Van Code claimed “everyone is calculating the XRP burn wrong,” starting with the premise that the commonly cited base fee of 0.00001 XRP only reflects a quiet network. “But what happens if the world actually starts using the XRPL at its 3,400 TPS limit?” he wrote, positioning load-driven fee escalation as the pivotal variable rather than raw throughput alone.
Van Code’s simulation walks through multiple fee regimes at the same headline activity rate, emphasizing that burn changes dramatically when the ledger is full and the “Load Factor” increases fees to deter spam. “As the ledger fills up, the Load Factor kicks in to stop spam,” he wrote. “Fees don’t just stay low; they scale exponentially.”
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He anchored the thread with four scenarios and daily burn estimates, starting with what he called a “standard day” of 1.2 million transactions and roughly 450 XRP burned per day. From there, he modeled “global adoption” at the stated 3,400 TPS ceiling, translating to about 293 million transactions per day at base fee and an estimated 2,937 XRP burned daily.
The more aggressive claims come when he holds transaction volume constant at that 293 million-per-day level but lifts the effective fee via congestion. In his “congestion hike” case, he assumes the load-scaled fee rises to 0.001 XRP, implying about 293,760 XRP burned per day. In a “full gridlock” case at 0.01 XRP per transaction, he estimates 2,937,600 XRP burned daily.
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The thesis leans on a structural feature of XRPL fees: they are not paid out to validators or any sponsoring entity, but removed from circulation. Van Code underscored that distinction directly. “The fees aren’t paid to miners. They aren’t paid to Ripple. They are destroyed forever.”
The “Supply Meltdown” Simulation 🌋
Headline: Everyone is calculating the $XRP burn wrong. 🧵
The “base fee” (0.00001 XRP) only exists when the network is quiet. But what happens if the world actually starts using the XRPL at its 3,400 TPS limit?
The Congestion Math:
As the…— Vincent Van Code (@vincent_vancode) January 24, 2026
From that, he draws his headline conclusion: “Under extreme global utility, we aren’t burning a few hundred tokens. We could be wiping 1 BILLION $XRP out of existence every year,” framing network demand—and the congestion it creates—as “the ultimate deflationary engine.”
At press time, XRP traded at $1.88.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
