U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded inflows of $240 million on Thursday, marking the first day of positive flows since Oct. 28, according to data from Farside.
No outflows were reported from any ETF provider, ending a six-day streak of consecutive outflows. The longest stretch of outflows since the ETFs launched remains eight consecutive trading days, a pattern that has historically coincided with market or local bottoms for bitcoin.
Since the U.S. government shutdown began on Oct. 1, ETF flows have mostly been negative, apart from the first week of October when bitcoin briefly rallied from $114,000 to $126,000. Persistent outflows have since aligned with bitcoin’s decline to $100,000. The asset is now down 11% since the shutdown, while the Nasdaq and gold have risen 2% and 4%, respectively.
As the shutdown continues, it is expected to further erode market confidence and increase the risk of reduced liquidity, likely curbing investors’ appetite for risk assets such as bitcoin. Notably, the 2018–2019 government shutdown coincided with a market bottom for bitcoin in that cycle.
According to prediction platform Polymarket, there is currently around a 50% chance that the government shutdown will extend beyond Nov. 16, a scenario that could continue to weigh on bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Bitcoin’s current correction, which began on Oct. 6, has seen a 21% decline over 31 days. For comparison, the correction during the April tariff-driven selloff lasted 79 days and resulted in a 32% drop.
