The U.S. dollar index (DXY) index is lower again on Tuesday, trading not far above its 2025 low.
After a strong gain in the weeks following the November 2024 election of Donald Trump, the greenback declined sharply throughout the first half of 2025 and has remained in a choppy pattern near multi-year low levels for the past few months.
The dollar’s large 2025 drop initially was mostly accompanied by expected broader market reaction, with things like stocks, gold and bitcoin all rising sharply to new records.
The story since October, though, is somewhat different — stocks and other hard assets have continued to surge — in fact, gold, silver and copper all rose sharply again on Tuesday to reach new record highs — but bitcoin and broader crypto markets have endured brutal bear moves.
What might be next for the dollar
The DXY index is now trading just above a major long-term support level that extends back to the 2008 global financial crisis. This level has been tested and held multiple times, most recently in July and September of this year.
As several foreign central banks, including the Bank of Japan, move toward tighter monetary policy, the U.S. Federal Reserve is facing growing pressure, most notably from President Trump, to lower interest rates. This divergence raises the possibility that the dollar could fall below that major support.
While the weak dollar this year hasn’t yet had any salutary effect on bitcoin, perhaps a break of that long-term support could be the news that finally spurs a reversal of crypto’s downtrend.
