The Solana price is entering a decisive phase as its action tightens below the $140 barrier, a level that has repeatedly capped attempts at recovery. After months of sustained selling pressure and increased whale activity, the market is now watching whether Solana can hold its recent gains or slip back toward lower support zones.
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This comes at a time when analysts, on-chain trackers, and market participants are also assessing the broader influence of KOL (Key Opinion Leader) predictions, many of which have dramatically misaligned with Solana’s actual price trajectory over the past two months.
SOL's price sees some small gains on the daily chart. Source: SOLUSD on Tradingview
Solana Price Stalls Below Key Resistance
SOL is currently trading just under $138 after a modest recovery from the $128 low. Technical data indicates that the Solana price is struggling beneath a dense cluster of moving averages, with the 20-day EMA at $138 repeatedly rejecting upward attempts.
The intraday structure remains corrective, as rallies tend to fade before gaining traction. A sustained close above $140 remains the key threshold. Clearing it could open immediate targets near $142 and later $150. However, failure at this level risks renewed pullbacks toward $132, and deeper weakness could revisit $128 region.
Short-term indicators offer mixed signals. The hourly RSI remains above 50, while the MACD leans slightly bullish, suggesting that momentum exists but lacks conviction.
KOL Predictions Scrutinized as Market Cap Declines
Solana’s market cap has fallen roughly 40.5% over the past two months, contradicting bullish influencer claims made earlier in the quarter. Data from Santiment shows how traders predict a near-term all-time high, only for SOL to continue its downward slide.
This divergence is leading analysts to lean more heavily on tools like the KOLs_Tracker, which ranks influencer performance and helps identify when certain calls may function as contrarian signals.
The gap between predictions and actual performance has added an extra layer of volatility to Solana’s narrative, as traders use social sentiment data alongside traditional indicators to gauge market direction. With network activity and flows still subdued, traders are approaching such predictions with increased caution.
Liquidity Shifts Highlight Whale Influence
On-chain activity shows notable movement from large holders, including a whale that recently transferred 100,000 SOL to Binance, part of a broader trend that has seen over 600,000 SOL moved to exchanges since April.
While not enough to move the market on its own, such consistent selling reinforces resistance zones and limits recovery momentum. The address still holds more than 700,000 SOL, meaning additional liquidity could enter the market if the Solana price approaches previously favored selling levels.
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As the Solana price deals with this tight range, market participants remain focused on whether buyers can establish a base above $138–$140. Until then, resistance remains firm, sentiment remains cautious, and the path forward depends on both technical confirmation and the broader crypto market direction.
Cover image from ChatGPT, SOLUSD chart from Tradingview
