The Bitcoin supercycle theory emerged during the last bull run, when expectations were that the price was going to hit $100,000 back then. Naturally, the expectations died down when the bear market rolled around, but with the Bitcoin price now above $100,000, supercycle beliefs are back in full swing. Analyst Weslad highlights this in a post, showing that the BTC price is actually far from its actual peak if the supercycle is still in play.
Why The Main Trend Indicator Is Important
The Bitcoin Main Trend Indicator is perhaps the most important indicator right now when it comes to telling where the price could be headed next. This indicator has its level set at around $40,000, giving Bitcoin a wide berth for what is possible when it comes to maintaining its bullish momentum.
Continuing to trade above the Main Trend Indicator suggests that the Bitcoin price is still firmly in bullish territory and that the supercycle is still in effect. In this supercycle theory, the 3rd Wave is still underway and is yet to hit its top.
As Weslad explains, if this Wave 3 is completed, then the Bitcoin price will hit as high as $172,000. This would mean an over 50% increase from the current price level, and ultimately, clearing the calls for the cycle top is already in.
Nevertheless, all of this hinges on the Bitcoin price staying above the Main Trend Indicator. This is because a break below the indicator triggers a bearish move for the digital asset that could be the start of the next bear market.
What To Expect For Bitcoin If Wave 3 Completes
A completion of the 3rd Wave would mean that the supercycle trend is still in play, and once the $172,000 of this 3rd Wave is reached, it moves directly into the more bearish Wave 4. This is where the Bitcoin price is expected to start falling.
The crypto analyst expects the Wave 4 to completely erase the gains from the 3rd Wave, pushing it back down toward $107,000 again. However, this is only the precursor to the fifth and final wave, which is the most bullish.
Weslad expects the last wave to push the Bitcoin price as high as $300,000, pointing to the 2020-2021 bull cycle as an example. Just like now, the BTC price had begun testing a dynamic trend line and was still able to put in new all-time highs despite market exhaustion. Thus, it is possible that Bitcoin completes all five waves, rallies to $300,000, before moving into the bear market.
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
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