Donald Trump has pushed the Federal Reserve back into the center of the crypto macro narrative, telling reporters he “already” knows who should succeed Jerome Powell and triggering a sharp repricing in real-money prediction markets in favor of Kevin Hassett.
In remarks in the Oval Office, Trump said: “I think I already know my choice,” when asked about the next Fed chair. He added that he would “love to get the guy currently in there out right now, but people are holding me back,” a clear swipe at Powell without naming him. Trump also hinted at the shape of his shortlist, saying, “We have some surprising names and we have some standard names that everybody’s talking about. And we may go the standard way. It’s nice to every once in a while go politically correct.”
That was enough to move markets. On Polymarket and Kalshi, contracts on “Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?” quickly converged around Hassett, with odds in the mid-40s to high-40s percent range. Jim Bianco summarized the shift by writing: “He wants Bessent but will take Hassett. The rest get to take selfies in the Oval Office.” In a follow-up, he noted that “Hassett (blue) is separating himself from the pack and is on the verge of being the first person to trade over 50%,” as prediction markets pushed his contract well clear of rivals.
Kalshi’s own social media account underscored the move: “BREAKING: Trump thinks he ‘already knows’ who will be next Fed Chair. 47% chance it’s Kevin Hassett.” The pseudonymous trader Byzantine General zoomed out to the timeline, pointing out that “Powell’s term ends May next year,” and sketching out a Q2 scenario with “a FED chair that listens to Trump” and “tariff dividends for plebs,” before cautioning that “you never know with Trump of course, but man, there could be something cooking.”
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What Hassett Could Mean For The Crypto Market
For macro-oriented crypto traders, the key is the policy signal embedded in those probabilities. Hassett is widely perceived as more dovish than Powell and more aligned with Trump’s preference for easier financial conditions. That is why trader CRG (@MacroCRG), framed the moment as the arrival of a “New hand picked super dove as Fed chair coming soon.”
Macro and crypto analyst Alex Krüger went further, arguing that the Fed-chair race is the real medium-term driver for risk assets once the current FOMC noise fades. “Here’s the next macro catalyst after the FOMC. A bullish catalyst the market is paying no heed to atm. It’s hard to peer into the horizon when stressed to the marrow about the present,” he wrote, adding that “the most bullish choices would be Hassett (likely), Rieder (possibly) and Zervos (unlikely).”
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The reason crypto traders care is straightforward: crypto assets trade as high-beta, liquidity-sensitive risk assets. A chair seen as more willing to cut rates faster, tolerate easier financial conditions or respond aggressively to equity and growth weakness is, in market logic, a structural tailwind for the long-run liquidity environment that underpins speculative flows into bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
At the same time, Trump’s open pressure on Powell and his readiness to talk about replacing the Fed chair in overtly political terms reinforce another strand of the crypto thesis. The more investors worry about the politicization of US monetary policy and the erosion of central-bank independence, the more compelling the “Bitcoin as hedge against political and institutional risk” narrative becomes for a subset of allocators.
For now, nothing has changed at the Fed. Powell remains in office, and all that has moved is a set of probability distributions on prediction markets. But as those distributions shift toward Kevin Hassett, crypto traders are already treating the prospective hand-off as a latent, potentially significant bullish tailwind building in the background.
At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $3.11 trillion.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
