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Bitcoin and gold surged on safe-haven demand after the US government shutdown, fueling talk that an Uptober rally is underway.
The shutdown began at 12:01 a.m. ET when Congress failed to pass a funding bill, sending investors into traditional and digital stores of value. Bitcoin climbed above $116,000, while gold set its 39th record high this year.
Crypto market leader Bitcoin, often seen as a digital store of value, saw its price soar more than 3% to trade at $116,846.22 as of 8:03 a.m. EST, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
BTC price (Source: CoinMarketCap)
The move sharpened focus on Bitcoin’s historical October strength, with traders noting the crypto is just 6% below its all-time high of $124,457.12 that it set on Aug. 14 as it begins a seasonally bullish quarter.
“Right now, Gold is hitting new highs, which means Bitcoin will do this next,” said @TedPillows, with more than 209k followers, on X. ”$BTC has been highly correlated to Gold with an 8-week lag. Maybe we could see another correction, but overall Q4 will be big for Bitcoin.”
The strong performance seems to have caught traders off guard, particularly ones that were betting the leading crypto’s price would fall.
Data from CoinGlass shows that over $628 million was liquidated from the market in the past 24 hours. The majority of these liquidations came from short positions, with $409.77 million being wiped out from these trades.
Looking at the past hour, $11.36 million was liquidated from short positions, while only $1.12 million was wiped out from long positions.
In both the 24-hour and 1-hour liquidations, the short trades that got hit the most were for Bitcoin.
Analysts Say Q4 Could Be Big For Bitcoin
According to MN Fund founder and renowned trader Michael van de Poppe, this could be just the beginning of BTC’s gains. In an X post to his more than 809.7K followers, the analyst said that BTC “looks primed for a big breakout upwards” on the weekly chart.
The weekly of #Bitcoin looks primed for a big breakout upwards. pic.twitter.com/lVOqxP5hua
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 1, 2025
On-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant echoed a similar sentiment on X. In a recent thread, the firm pointed to the increasing USDT market cap, the buy signal presented by the stablecoin supply ratio, accumulator demand hitting an all-time high, and inter-exchange flow pulse as possible catalysts for a big BTC move.
5 Key Alerts for Next week ✅
Bitcoin is consolidating after last week’s drop from $115K to $108K. The next move could be big.
Here are 5 key on-chain alerts to watch 👇 pic.twitter.com/MOIwJkJZem
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) September 30, 2025
Bitcoin Enters A Historically Bullish Month And Quarter
The rally by Bitcoin comes as BTC enters what has historically been a bullish month for the crypto king.
BTC’s historical monthly performance (Source: Coinglass)
Since 2013, there have only been two instances in the past where Bitcoin posted a monthly loss in October. This has led to traders and analysts often referring to the month as “Uptober.”
BTC has also posted double-digit gains in almost all of the past Octobers. The only time when this was not the case was in 2022, when the crypto only managed a 5.5% gain for the month.
Meanwhile, the largest October gain was recorded in 2013, when BTC’s price soared over 60%.
Q4 has also historically been a bullish month for Bitcoin, with just four instances when the crypto did not print a gain during this period. The 2017 bull run year was also a breakout period for the largest crypto by market cap.
Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has alluded to a potential repeat of BTC’s historical October performance this month.
On X on Sept. 30, he shared a screenshot of the Bitcoin price chart from 2017, which he says was his first crypto cycle. The chart shows the BTC price went parabolic after September.
Not predicting the future. And don’t get too excited.
A September in a past (my first) crypto cycle. Just data. 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/zcUOHSCh1r
— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) September 30, 2025
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