In brief
- 31% of Americans—and far more Gen Z and Millennials—believe prediction markets will grow into a major cultural force.
- Polymarket and Kalshi now command $20 billion in combined valuations as trading volumes hit record highs.
- Regulatory tailwinds and rising mainstream awareness are fueling a generational shift toward market-based forecasting.
A third of young Americans think prediction markets are the future. And they’re putting their money where their mouth is.
New survey data from The New Consumer and Coefficient Capital reveals that 31% of Americans believe prediction markets will become a bigger, more important part of culture. But that number masks a generational split that’s as wide as the gap between TikTok and cable news.
Younger consumers are much more aware of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Gen Z and Millennials show 17% awareness of Polymarket versus just 4% for Gen X and older. Kalshi awareness follows the same pattern: 13% for younger users, 5% for older generations.
The New Consumer is a research project that focuses on evaluating market trends and their influence on consumer behavior. The reports are developed in partnership with Coefficient Capital and are not commissioned by the subjects under scrutiny.
The survey, conducted with over 3,000 U.S. consumers through Toluna, arrives at a moment when prediction markets are raising money at a fast pace.
Kalshi last month raised $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation. Intercontinental Exchange—the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange—dropped $2 billion into Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation.
Together, these two platforms are now worth $20 billion. And they’re putting up massive trading volume numbers as well.
Kalshi is processing $1.7 billion to $2.3 billion per week while Polymarket is hitting between $1 billion and $1.7 billion in weekly volume, according data from a widely cited Dune dashboard. And the chart has generally stayed “up and to the right” since the start of the year, each platform gaining more traction week over week. (Obligatory disclosure: Myriad, a prediction market built by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, took three months to achieve 10X growth, breaking its $100M volume goal faster than expected.)
Google search data tells the same story. Interest in prediction markets spiked during the 2024 election. But now that the numbers are back to normal, prediction markets are maintaining search interest 20-30x higher than their pre-election baselines.
The regulatory environment has played a role in this interest peak. After years of fighting, the CFTC under Chairman Michael Selig has adopted what the industry calls a “forward-looking” approach—which is Washington-speak for “we’re not going to kill this thing.”
Polymarket, which got booted from the U.S. in 2022, returned with full CFTC blessing in late 2025. Kalshi’s legal victory over the CFTC in May 2025 opened election markets at the federal level, though Kalshi has recently faced intense pushback from state regulators in jurisdictions with legal sports betting.
The survey data suggests young Americans see these battles as speed bumps, not roadblocks. When asked about sports betting versus prediction markets on “everyday life,” 34% said sports betting would grow more important versus 31% for prediction markets. Statistically, that’s a tie. And 38-39% think both will stay about the same.
The real test is coming. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is expected to bring $35 billion in bets. Are prediction markets the future of finance, or a bubble waiting to pop? Right now, a third of young Americans are betting it’s the former.
Daily Debrief Newsletter
Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
