November has kicked off on a negative note for crypto prices, with Bitcoin (BTC) briefly dipping toward $105,000 on Monday. This decline has sparked a renewed sense of bearish sentiment among investors, and experts caution that conditions could worsen in the coming days.
November Deadline Approaches
Market expert CryptoBirb recently expressed concerns on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), noting that the market is already ten days into a bearish cycle. According to CryptoBirb, diving into on-chain data, the more alarming the picture appears.
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CryptoBirb’s analysis begins with cycle peak data: it has been 1,078 days since the low in November 2022, which is 101.2% of the crypto cycle complete. Additionally, it has been 563 days since the last Halving, with 45 days remaining within the typical 518 to 580-day peak range.
Alarmingly, the anticipated rally leading to this peak has not materialized, and there are only 17 days left before the window for a peak closes on November 20. Missed breakouts during this time frame have signaled the end of previous bullish cycles.
When comparing the current situation to the 2017 cycle, it is noted that Bitcoin reached its peak on December 17, 2017, 1,068 days after its low. With BTC now 1,078 days into the current cycle, the chances of a late top are diminishing with each passing day that the cryptocurrency remains below $113,000.
From a performance standpoint, Bitcoin is down 16% from its all-time high of $126,200 and has only gained 8.2% year-to-date. The market’s leading crypto has faced repeated rejections near the $113,000 to $114,000 range and is currently trading below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $109,882.
Historically, November typically sees an average gain of 17.5%, with positive performance in 10 out of the last 15 years. However, the expert points that when November begins in the red, it often indicates that the cycle is already shifting.
Potential Bullish Factors Amid Ongoing Crypto Concerns
Adding to this bearish sentiment, DeFi researcher DeFiIgnas has outlined several factors complicating the crypto market’s trajectory. These include what he calls “the speculative nature of the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble,” the failure of bullish news to invigorate crypto prices, uncertainty surrounding entities that collapsed after the October 10 crash, and the cyclical nature of the market.
Additionally, the selling activity from long-term holders and negative crypto exchange-traded funds (ETF) flows contribute to the prevailing concerns.
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Despite these challenges, DeFiIgnas also identified some potential bullish factors that could foster recovery instead of further declines.
These include easing liquidity and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed), a lack of euphoria in the crypto space, slow but steady institutional adoption, and the potential passage of a US crypto market structure bill.
Historically strong performance in the fourth quarter, stablecoin supply at all-time highs, and a recent US trade deal with China could also provide a counterbalance to the prevailing bearish sentiment.
Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
