In brief
- BlackRock’s IBIT saw its largest single-day outflow since early August, shedding $290 million.
- The drop reflects short-term macro uncertainty and a closed arbitrage window, not a long-term shift, according to analysts.
- Despite the weekly outflow, October’s total ETF inflows still beat September’s at $3.61 billion.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed a significant wave of outflows this week, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which saw its largest single-day redemption since early August, signaling a shift in short-term institutional sentiment.
The products saw a net outflow of $388.43 million on October 30, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing $290.88 million to the total—the largest single day of outflows for the fund since August 4.
Ark & 21Shares’ ARKB and Bitwise’s BITB followed with outflows of $65.62 million and $55.15 million, respectively, according to data from SoSoValue. The weekly netflow has now flipped negative, with $607 million exiting these funds.
Macro uncertainty
The outflows reveal a shift in market focus from a supportive policy action to future uncertainty.
“Recent Bitcoin ETF outflows are likely driven by macro uncertainty following Trump’s recent actions towards China,” Maarten Regterschot, an analyst at CryptoQuant, told Decrypt.
While the Fed delivered an expected rate cut, Chair Powell’s subsequent comments casting doubt on a December move created new macroeconomic doubts. These worries amplified the rotation out of ETFs due to the closed arbitrage window, experts previously told Decrypt.
The bearish tilt is further evidenced in the options market.
The 7-day 25-delta skew, which measures the cost of downside protection, dropped sharply from -0.1 to -8 between October 26 and 30, indicating traders were willing to pay a significant premium for puts, according to Deribit data.
While the metric has since ticked up slightly, it remains in negative territory, underscoring a cautious but slightly improving near-term sentiment.
The long-term view
Despite the current weakness, the longer-term picture for institutional adoption remains constructive.
While this week is negative, October’s total ETF netflow remains positive at $3.61 billion, slightly exceeding September’s $3.53 billion inflow.
It suggests the current outflows represent a short-term recalibration rather than a structural reversal of the institutional demand that has characterized much of 2025.
“Last year’s Q4 saw strong inflows of around $11.2B into Bitcoin ETFs,” CryptoQuant’s Regterschot highlighted. “A similar trend could emerge if macro conditions ease and investor sentiment improves.”
The bullish undercurrent is also visible in the market sentiment.
On prediction market Myriad, launched by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users assigned a 70% chance that Ethereum will hit $5,000 before gold.
Furthermore, the platform’s fear and greed index shows greed hovering around 59%—indicating that Thursday’s crash, which liquidated nearly $1 billion in longs, did little to dent overall trader confidence.
Daily Debrief Newsletter
Start every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
