Bitcoin’s lack of an exciting year-end price rally may be the catalyst that prevents a significant crash in the first quarter of next year, according to Bitcoin entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano.
“Given where the volatility is right now, it would be very surprising that Bitcoin’s volatility has drastically compressed and yet still could get a 70% or 80% drawdown,” Pompliano said during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday.
Pompliano said the short-term disappointment from Bitcoin (BTC) holders over the asset not reaching $250,000 this year overlooks the broader performance. “We have to remember that Bitcoin is up 100% in two years. It’s up almost 300% in three years. It has been compounding,” he said.
“This thing has been a monster in financial markets,” he added.
No “big 80% drawdown” for Bitcoin
Pompliano said that the decline in Bitcoin’s volatility has largely gone unnoticed by Bitcoin holders, compared with the attention on the asset’s price drop since the start of the year.
“We didn’t get a blowoff top that I think people expected at the end of Q3, or beginning of Q4, but we haven’t seen the big 80% drawdown that people normally expect as well,” he said.
Bitcoin is trading at $87,436 at the time of publication, down 7.39% from its price on Jan. 1, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin advocates such as BitMine chair Tom Lee and BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes had forecast Bitcoin’s price reaching as high as $250,000 this year.
Pompliano said the compression in volatility means holders may be “a little bit disappointed on the upside” due to the absence of blow-off tops, but it also provides “some degree of safety” on the downside, reducing the likelihood of massive drawdowns.
Some Bitcoin analysts are tipping $60K in 2026
However, not all analysts are as confident as Pompliano.
Related: Brazil’s live orchestra to turn Bitcoin price moves into music
Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently predicted that Bitcoin could fall as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.
Meanwhile, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s director of global macroeconomic research, said 2026 could be a “year off” for Bitcoin, with prices potentially falling to as low as $65,000.
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