The yearly Bitcoin (BTC) price candle is set to close in the red, ending 2025 lower than at the start of the year, unless BTC can rise by 6.24% above the yearly open of about $93,374.
“3 days for Bitcoin to recover and close up on the year. If not, this will be the first post-halving year we close in the red. 6.24% required to make this a green candle,” Puckrin said.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high above $125,000 in October, days before a historic market crash put a dent in Bitcoin’s rally and dropped crypto prices across the board.
The price of BTC has declined by about 30% since the all-time high and formed a local bottom around $80,000 in November, prompting analysts to debate if Bitcoin’s bull rally is over and a new bear market has started.
Market analysts are at odds over whether a recovery will materialize or if the decline will extend into 2026, often focusing on macroeconomic factors and liquidity conditions that drive Bitcoin’s price.
Related: Bitcoin price, onchain flows and global macro: Here’s what changed in 2025
All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve and whether rate cuts will continue
Bitcoin has been trading well below its 365-day moving average, a critical support level, since November, breaking the structural uptrend that began in 2023.
Lower interest rates are positive price catalysts for risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies, which tend to rally with fresh liquidity injections.
The Federal Reserve issued three 25 basis point (BPS) interest rate cuts in 2025; however, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell issued mixed forward guidance at the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) December meeting.
“There is no risk-free path for policy,” Powell said, casting doubt about another interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in January.
Only 18.8% of investors expect an interest rate cut in January, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group’s FedWatch tool.
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